There is growing consensus among modelers estimating the number of cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus in the next few weeks.

But this convergence of estimates — 31,000 to 42,000 additional deaths through mid-June for roughly 120,000 total deaths in the United States — comes just as shifts in public policy are likely to create new uncertainty about the path of the pandemic after that.

Three weeks ago, predictions from five popular models were widely divergent. Now, their outputs look far more similar.

Scientists who build models say they find it more useful to look at an ensemble of serious models at once than to rely on one.

“We know there is no perfect model,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology at the University of Texas, who recommended the ensemble approach as a good way to understand the range of likely outcomes.