Three lessons for the COVID-19 response from pandemic HIV
15 Apr, 2020The HIV pandemic provides lessons for the response to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: no vaccine is available for either and there are no licensed pharmaceuticals for COVID-19, just as there was not for HIV infection in the early years. Population behaviour will determine the pandemic trajectory of COVID-19, just as it did for HIV.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and HIV are, of course, different. Untreated HIV infection usually causes death; SARS-CoV-2 kills a minority. Behaviour changes that will slow transmission are different: sexual behaviour and needle sharing for HIV, physical proximity and hand washing for SARS-CoV-2. Early HIV cases doubled over 6–12 months, for SARS-CoV-2 the serial interval is a matter of days.
A severe COVID-19 epidemic in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with weak health systems is a sobering prospect. In many ways, the history of HIV prevention is of a failure of global health. Some 32 million have died with sub-Saharan Africa worst affected. But critical lessons have been learnt: three stand out.
