Data scientists have attempted to answer the question on everyone’s mind: When will the coronavirus pandemic end?

Their predictions use a mathematical model known as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered), which calculates the spread and recovery of diseases.

Researchers from Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) fed the model data on confirmed infections, tests conducted, and deaths recorded, to estimate the life cycle of COVID-19.

Globally, their system predicts the pandemic will end this December. But the end date is estimated to vary immensely among nations, from June in Australia to October in Italy.

The researchers warn that both the model and the data can’t accurately capture the complexity and dynamic nature of the disease. But they still believe the predictions can support proactive planning that avoids starting lockdowns too late or relaxing restriction too early.

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